Here’s a bold statement: The bulls are charging back into the market, and the stakes are higher than ever as we approach the monthly F&O expiry. But here’s where it gets controversial—can the Nifty 50 sustain its momentum and reclaim the 26,100 mark, or will it face resistance that could derail the rally? Let’s dive into the details and explore what’s really at play.
Nifty Outlook for October 28
After a brief pause for consolidation and profit-taking, the Nifty 50 bulls roared back into action on October 27, propelling the index to test the psychological barrier of 26,000 intraday. The index closed with a modest but meaningful 0.7% gain, fueled by easing global headwinds ahead of the monthly derivative contracts expiry on October 28. This rebound not only erased the previous day’s losses but also kept the index comfortably above key moving averages, which continue to trend upward.
And this is the part most people miss—technical indicators are flashing bullish signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed back above the overbought zone of 70, reaching 71.49, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained firmly in bullish territory, with its histogram staying above the zero line. These signs suggest that the upward momentum could persist, but there’s a catch: the market’s ability to sustain this rally hinges on its ability to close above 26,000.
Experts weigh in with a cautiously optimistic view. If the Nifty 50 manages to hold above 26,000, a short-term rally toward the previous week’s high of 26,104 or even the record high of 26,277 isn’t off the table. However, the 25,800–25,700 range is expected to act as a critical support zone. Here’s the controversial question—is the market overestimating its strength, or is this just the beginning of a more sustained uptrend?
The index’s intraday performance on October 27 was particularly telling. It opened above 25,800, maintained that level throughout the session, and hit a high of 26,006 before closing at 25,966, up 171 points (0.66%). The daily chart formed a long bullish candle with a minor upper shadow, signaling a positive trend despite some profit-taking at higher levels.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, notes, “Sentiment remains robust as the index holds above the breakout point. The current setup favors further upside, with dips likely to attract buyers.” He identifies 25,700 as a key support level, below which weakness could emerge, while 26,000 acts as resistance. A decisive move above this level could pave the way for a rally toward 26,500 in the short term.
Monthly options data adds another layer of insight. The Nifty 50 is expected to face resistance at 26,500, with support at 25,900. Maximum Call open interest (OI) is concentrated at the 26,500 strike, followed by 26,100 and 26,000, while maximum Put OI is at 25,900, followed by 25,500 and 26,000. These levels could act as magnets or barriers for the index in the near term.
Bank Nifty Steals the Spotlight
Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty isn’t lagging behind. After a day of correction, it surged 415 points (0.72%) to close at a record high of 58,114, forming a bullish candle on the daily charts. Trading near all-time highs, the banking index continues to exhibit strong bullish undertones, with major moving averages and momentum indicators favoring the bulls.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, highlights, “The 58,500–58,600 zone is likely to act as a crucial resistance area. A decisive breakout above 58,600 could trigger a sharp rally toward 59,100, followed by 59,500.” On the downside, the 57,700–57,600 range is expected to provide strong support, with any dip potentially attracting buying interest.
The Volatility Factor
The India VIX, a barometer of market volatility, spiked to 12.72 intraday but cooled off as the session progressed, closing 2.31% higher at 11.86. This moderation in volatility is a positive sign for the bulls, as it suggests that fear is subsiding, at least for now.
Final Thoughts and a Provocative Question
As we stand at this critical juncture, the market’s ability to sustain its rally will depend on global cues, domestic flows, and investor sentiment. But here’s the real question—are we on the cusp of a new bull run, or is this just a temporary rebound before the next correction? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and let’s spark a debate!
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts are their own and not those of the platform. Readers are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
