Imagine a ripple effect so powerful that political turmoil in one country could cripple economies across an entire region. That's the stark reality facing Southern Africa as Tanzania's political instability threatens to disrupt vital trade routes. But here's where it gets even more concerning: the impact isn't just confined to Tanzania; it's sending shockwaves through landlocked nations like Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, which heavily rely on Tanzanian ports for essential goods.
The recent closure of Dar es Salaam port during election-related unrest in Tanzania brought this vulnerability into sharp focus. For days, trucks carrying critical supplies were stranded, leaving Malawi's fuel pumps dry and its cargo sector paralyzed. Sydney Chaima, speaking from Lilongwe, painted a grim picture: "You can hardly get fuel in Lilongwe and Salima."
And this is the part most people miss: the disruption isn't just about fuel. Landlocked Southern African countries depend on Tanzanian ports for pharmaceuticals, agricultural inputs, vehicles, and textiles. As economist Christopher Mbukwa warns, "We could see a rise in inflation and diminished growth. Farmers are going to be the worst affected. We are at a key moment when fertilizers are needed."
Tanzania's role in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the North-South Corridor—a lifeline for over 60% of SADC trade—cannot be overstated. Earlier this year, SADC members, including Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa, endorsed a plan to develop a "smart corridor" expected to unlock $16.1 billion in GDP and create 1.6 million jobs. But with Tanzania's instability, these ambitions hang in the balance.
Here’s where it gets controversial: While some analysts suggest exploring alternative routes through Mozambique or South Africa, these options could be costlier and less efficient. Trice Chisamba, a Zimbabwean car importer, highlighted the chaos caused by Tanzania's internet blackout: "We couldn't communicate with clearing agents. Some of our vehicles were released and parked outside the port, and we feared they could be destroyed in the violence."
The SADC election observer mission didn't hold back, condemning Tanzania's disputed election for failing to meet democratic standards. Their preliminary report cited voter suppression, restrictions on opposition activities, and reports of ballot stuffing. "Overall, the 2025 general election fell short of the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections," they stated.
This rare criticism has put President Samia Suluhu Hassan's legitimacy under scrutiny. Human rights lawyer Tito Mugoti bluntly declared, "The government she forms is illegitimate. Parliament is illegitimate. The people's interests will not be represented."
Adding to the tension, only two SADC leaders attended Suluhu Hassan's inauguration: Presidents Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia and Daniel Chapo of Mozambique. Hichilema faced backlash from some Zambians, who accused him of endorsing a disputed election. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa sent his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga, who expressed hope that Tanzania would "iron out their differences and move forward."
As Southern Africa grapples with these challenges, one question lingers: Is prioritizing trade over democratic principles a sustainable approach? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a conversation that matters.
