In a significant development in African politics, two pivotal elections are set to take place in Guinea and the Central African Republic (CAR), with leaders aiming to solidify their power. These elections, scheduled for Sunday, will determine the fate of these nations for the next seven years.
The CAR, a landlocked country grappling with chronic instability, is one of Africa's poorest nations. It has been plagued by armed groups driven by various local grievances, racketeering, and political ambitions. The national government in Bangui, the riverside capital, has often struggled to exert authority in the northern and eastern regions. Despite these challenges, multi-party politics has endured, with a degree of tolerance for opposition and protest.
In contrast, Guinea, located on Africa's west coast, witnessed a coup in September 2021, led by General Mamadi Doumbouya, who overthrew 83-year-old civilian President Alpha Condé. Doumbouya now seeks to become a constitutionally elected ruler, facing eight challengers. However, the prominent opposition figure Cellou Dalein Diallo, a Peul community leader, has been excluded from the contest, raising concerns about political choice.
The Doumbouya regime has been treated gently by both France and the West, despite a troubling human rights record. His overthrow of Condé, marked by frequent security force brutality, was celebrated in Conakry and received little criticism abroad. Doumbouya's approach to international relations contrasts with neighboring regimes, as he maintains good relations with Western governments, particularly France, and has pursued a methodical constitutional review, laying the groundwork for the upcoming vote.
In the CAR, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a mathematician and former university vice-chancellor, has been a pivotal figure. He entered politics as prime minister under François Bozizé and later became a post-conflict and consensual civil-society figure. Touadéra's bid for a third term has sparked controversy, with constitutional reform to scrap term limits, leading to a boycott by some opposition groups. Despite this, his most prominent rival, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, has been allowed to participate in the election.
The elections in both countries hold significance for regional stability and economic integration. The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) has been relieved by the return of elected governments in both nations, promoting democracy and military cooperation. The CAR, with its reliance on Russian military advice, is slowly emerging from years of insecurity, and international partners are supportive of Touadéra's bid for a third term, despite some opposition.
As these elections unfold, the focus is on the consolidation of power and the impact on regional dynamics, with Guinea's decision to stay in Ecowas and restore elected government being seen as a step towards reconsolidating normality in West Africa.
